TODAY: Patchy fog at dawn, otherwise a warm, dry and mostly sunny day. Highs near 80 inland, mid 70s at the shore. Northeast winds turning southeast 5-10mph.
TONIGHT: A pleasant evening with mostly clear skies… increasing clouds and patchy fog developing late at night… lows 60-65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, warmer and muggy. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of scattered thunderstorms by evening.
As of 5AM, Dorian remained nearly stationary, just north of Grand Bahama Island. It has weakened slightly overnight, but is still a powerful Category 3 Hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph. It is expected to maintain its strength over the next few days as it moves near (but off-shore) of the eastern Florida coastline.
Even though Dorian is not expected to make landfall in Florida the size of the storm means it will still impact the state’s east coast with wind, rain and storm surges. Hurricane and storm surge warnings remain in effect for parts of the coast.
We still anticipate Dorian to track north and eventually northeast coming very close to the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, bring wind, rain and possible storm surge flooding . The extent of storm surge and the resultant flooding will depend on how close Dorian gets to the coast.
After the Carolinas, Dorian is still expected to pass to our south and offshore on Friday night. While a direct hit from Dorian is unlikely, we will like get rip currents, high surf, and big waves if this current track holds. It’s also possible we get some gusty wind and rain from the outer band of Dorian Friday evening through Friday night. Keep in mind, IF Dorian gets close, it would likely be a weaker storm (maybe a Cat 1). This all being said, there is still a “slight” chance Dorian could move closer to our area, so we need to watch this with some caution. We still have ample time to analyze more data.
Here is a computer model projection (the GFS model) of Dorian on Friday evening. Notice the circulation is well to our south, but we are still grazed by the rain shield and some coastal winds (not hurricane wind).
Wave Height forecast models showing large waves well offshore Friday evening. Some of this “wave energy” will impact our coastal waters by Friday likely generating large surf and dangerous rip currents by late week
Don’t let this be the last you read on Dorian. The forecast track will likely shift a bit and small shifts in the track can mean “increased or decreased” impacts. Please check back