Weather Now: Sunny Tuesday. Tracking Hurricane Dorian.

Weather

If you are looking for updates on extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian, you can find that at the end of this blog.

DORIAN

Dorian remains a very strong storm as a Category 4. At one point Sunday, it had winds of 185 mph! The winds came down to 130 mph but that is still a very powerful storm.

 At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.5 West.  Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island.  A slow northwestward motion is expected to occur early Tuesday.  A turn toward the north is forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday night.  On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday morning.  The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).  Settlement Point Grand Bahama recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h), and Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County Florida recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (91 km). 

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HURRICANE DORIAN: The eye of Dorian is expected to stay just off the Florida east coast with no landfall. However the size of the storm means it will still impact Florida’s east coast with wind, rain and storm surges. Hurricane warning remains in effect for parts of the coast…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL * Lake Okeechobee 




LATEST WIND FIELD: Yellow colors represent tropical storm force winds, while the orange and reds are hurricane force with red area being the strongest winds near the eye

We still anticipate Dorian to make a right hand turn just off the Florida coastline. Heavy rain, damaging winds and big waves are all expected along the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina coasts during the next several days. There will also be storm surge, but the extent of storm surge and the resultant flooding will depend on how close Dorian gets to the coast.

LATEST DORIAN TRACK FOR SOUTHEAST COAST

LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR MID ATLANTIC COAST

After the Carolinas, Dorian is still expected to pass to our south and offshore on Friday night. Note in the above map, the coast of southern New England is now in the “yellow cone of uncertainty”. While a direct hit from Dorian is unlikely, we will like get rip currents, high surf, and big waves if this current track holds. It’s also possible we get some gusty wind and rain from the outer band of Dorian Friday evening. Keep in mind, IF Dorian gets close, it would likely be much weaker (maybe a Cat 1) than it is right now. This all being said, there is still a “slight” chance Dorian could move closer to our area, so we need to watch this with some caution. We still have ample time to analyze more data.

Here is a computer model projection (the GFS model) of Dorian on Friday evening. Notice the circulation is well to our south, but we are still grazed by the rain shield and some coastal winds (not hurricane wind).

Wave Height forecast models showing large waves well offshore Friday evening. Some of this “wave energy” will impact our coastal waters by Friday

Potential for large surf and dangerous rip currents by late week

Don’t let this be the last you read on Dorian. The forecast track will likely shift a bit and small shifts in the track can mean “increased or decreased” impacts. Please check back

Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

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