Weather Alert: Black Ice Overnight. “Winter Storm Watch” Mid-Week

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A weak system passing will continue to pass offshore this evening with chilly rain (wet snow flakes), ending shortly.

HOUR BY HOUR // Daily/Hourly Temps and Sky Conditions »

Clear skies overnight. Winds will turn gusty and temperatures will cool to the mid to upper 20s. Watch for areas of black ice thru daybreak Tuesday as wet pavement will freeze in some areas. We’ll be back to sunny skies on Tuesday but it will be a brisk and chilly day with highs only in the mid 30s.

OVERNIGHT HOURS THRU 6AM TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY NIGHT–THURSDAY STORM

We are tracking, what could be, the first significant snow storm of the season. There is the potential for large amounts of snow (6″ to 12″), but it is too early to nail down specifics with the accumulations. What we do know is there is increasing confidence in a plow-able snow for our area…. with a likelihood of “at least” 6 inches. Bottom line, check back for updates as these numbers will need to be adjusted as more weather data comes in next 24-36 hours

STORM TIMELINE

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL

WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect Wednesday Night thru Thursday morning.

Here’s the set-up:

High Pressure to the north will provide a pool of cold air over New England, and will set the stage for accumulating snow as an area of low pressure moves off of the mid-Atlantic coastline. Temperatures will start in the ‘teens Wednesday morning and only make it to the low 30s in the afternoon. For those on the roads, we’re not expecting any travel impacts during the daylight hours on Wednesday. Conditions on the roads will become slippery after 8PM. Worst travel weather will be Midnight thru Thursday morning

Snow will be falling heavy at times Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, with the potential for snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour. During that time, travel will be difficult with the combination of heavy snow and gusty winds leading to the potential for poor visibility and snow-covered roads. Snow gradually tapers off Thursday afternoon/evening.

The biggest question that remains is the exact track of the storm.

We know the storm will have a sharp cut-off with the heavy snow on the northern edge of the storm. So if the storm ends taking a more southern track then the heaviest of the snow will miss our area. On the flipside, if the storm tracks close to the coast, the heaviest of the snow would be to our north and there could be some sleet/rain mixing in for a time, especially south of Providence. For snow lovers, a “perfect” track would be right in the middle of those options–about 75 miles off-shore– that would put southern New England in the jackpot, with the potential for 1 foot or more of dry, fluffy snow. We’ll know more about the exact track of the storm as more data comes in later and especially by Tuesday afternoon.

OTHER IMPACTS:

WIND: In addition to the risk of accumulating snow, this storm has the capability of producing gusty east northeast winds Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Here’s a look at the GRAF model, which is showing the potential for gusts 40-50 mph. Gusts closer to 50-60 mph from Block Island to Nantucket. That combined with significant snow could cause blowing and drifting snow, and perhaps a few isolated outages.

WIND GUST FORECAST 7AM Thursday

COASTAL FLOODING: We’re at an astronomically high tide cycle right now, and this storm could cause some minor coastal flooding at high tide on any east facing shoreline communities in Massachusetts.

We’ll keep you updated as more data comes in.

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