TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The first month of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is now over and things are looking relatively quiet in the tropics as we begin July — but will it stay that way throughout the month?
July is not typically one of the busier months of hurricane season. Since 1950, there have only been approximately 45 named storms between July 7 and July 21, according to WFLA Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli.
“The points of origin expand across most of the basin during July, with an emphasis off the Eastern Seaboard and a minimum in the Caribbean graveyard,” he said.
Two more large plumes of Saharan dust are forecast to move across the Atlantic Ocean in the coming weeks, which will likely help keep the tropics quiet. The dry dust and winds associated with the plumes help limit moisture needed for storms to develop, and help prevent organization.
Once the dust subsides, we typically see an uptick in tropical activity.
The biggest uptick in tropical activity usually happens in August as we get closer to the statistical peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10. Roughly two-thirds of all tropical systems in the Atlantic basin form in August or September.
That does not mean July storms are out of the question, however. Last year, Hurricane Elsa formed in early July.
So far this year, we’ve had three named storms: Tropical Storm Alex, Tropical Storm Bonnie and Tropical Storm Colin. Both Colorado State University and NOAA have predicted above-average activity this hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center is not tracking anything in the Atlantic basin and does not expect any new tropical cyclone within the next five days.
The next storm that forms will be given the name Danielle.
Tracking the Tropics streams at 2 p.m. ET every Wednesday during hurricane season. For the latest updates, check out our Tracking the Tropics website.