Even though an “out to sea” scenario is not completely off of the table, It seems likely that Florence will make landfall somewhere along the east coast of the United States. Unfortunately, it also seems likely that when it does, Florence could be back to a hurricane or even a major hurricane.
Over the next few days, Florence will pass into an area friendly for storm intensification. Therefore, it’s expected to be back to hurricane status at some point this weekend. By early next week, it will likely be somewhere south of Bermuda. Interaction with high pressure to the north will be key to what happens next (Michelle Muscatello discussed this in her previous blog).
IF the high pressure is strong, it will likely push Florence somewhere to our south (maybe the Carolinas but it’s too early to lock in on one solution).
If it’s weaker, that would allow Florence to go a little further north. With this scenario, we would be a little more concerned here in southern New England. As mentioned before, even though the chance is low, it could end up going out to sea and stay east of our area.
The chance of a New England landfall is still very low. Even if it did get close, it likely would not be until the end of next week (Thursday or Friday…maybe later). Either way, high surf and rip currents are a decent bet mid to late next week, even if the storm does not get that close. Thanks for reading and there will be more updates this weekend. -Pete Mangione