The peak of hurricane season arrives and there is certainly no shortage of activity in the Atlantic basin. Tropical Storm Paulette and Rene remain over the open waters. Forecast models weaken Rene as it stays well out to sea. Models strengthen Paulette however as it continues west-northwest towards Bermuda. Early indications are that a low end hurricane could be very close to if not impacting Bermuda over the next week or so.
In terms of systems closer to home… the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor two areas near the southeast United States coast. One area currently in the Gulf of Mexico has a low chance of developing as it dives southwestward. Another area will move across the Bahamas and Florida Keys and could develop as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
The main area to watch is the system right off the African coast. This has a high chance of developing over the coming days and has a west movement which could bring it into the Caribbean.
September 10th is the peak of hurricane season. Over the course of every 100 years it is found that the highest number of active storms has occurred during this time frame. The peak will continue over the next couple of weeks and fittingly, activity will continue to ramp up.
The graphic above gives an idea on the typical tracks we see these storms take during the month of September. As you can see, the east coast of the US falls in the “More Likely” to “Most Likely” categories.
Overall for back home here in Southern New England, there are no imminent threats from any tropical storms or hurricanes.