A strong area of high pressure (calm weather) has set up across the northeast and Canada drawing in colder and dry air.
We are in a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which allows cold air to be entrenched across New England. Sometimes, this provides a storm track conducive for storms along with having cold air in place. This time around, the storm track is actually pushed too far south.
So any storm that does pass along the jet stream will be suppressed to the south of New England until we see the atmospheric pattern start to change.
A positive phase of the NAO would provide warmer weather across our area along with less storminess.
As we transition from a STRONG negative NAO to a more neutral NAO, we could start to see storms closer to home and with some cold air in place.
Early indications are that this pattern change doesn’t occur until sometime later in the month. Without putting an exact date but instead a range, we’re watching storm threats throughout the next few weeks.
The first storm is expected to pass WELL SOUTH of New England this weekend leaving us with dry and cold conditions.
Another offshore storm looks to be nearby early to mid next week (January 11 to 13 timeframe). As of now, this looks to be offshore but we’ll continue monitoring.
As we go into the distant future there is another threat of a storm next weekend (January 15-17) with more chances down the pipeline as we head into the end of the month.
Now, nothing is set in stone by any means and these are just possibilities. The pattern looks to pick up and become active so we’ll have plenty of track over the coming weeks.
So, how much snowfall have we seen this season?
We are just over an inch and a half short of the average snowfall for this time of year.
10.60″ have fallen at Warwick’s T.F. Green Airport with the average being 12.20″.
With little to no snowfall expected over the next several days, the normal seasonal snowfall amount will continue to increase with the observed staying the same…. so the gap between the two will continue to get larger.
Remember to download our Pinpoint Weather 12 app to your smartphone or tablet for all the latest updates on the forecast and so you can track storms along with the Pinpoint Weather team.