4 Temperature Records Could Fall This Weekend: Which are Most Likely?


A warm and windy weekend is on the way and we have a chance of breaking 4 temperature records! The 4 records are the high temperature records for Saturday and Sunday, and the “warmest low” temperature records for Saturday and Sunday. They are shown below and are recorded at TF Green Airport:

Remarkably, we have a chance of breaking all of these records! So which are the most likely and which are the least likely? Here are my thoughts:

  1. Sunday Warm Low (Highly Likely) – Daily low temperatures typically occur early in the morning. To break the Sunday record, the temperature needs to stay above 44°. Saturday night into early Sunday morning, the temperature may not even drop below 50! This is because we will have a very mild air mass in place along with clouds and wind. That’s a recipe for a very mild overnight and early morning.

Interestingly, there is a scenario in which the temperature could drop to 44 or lower late Sunday night just before midnight.

2. Saturday Warm Low (Moderately Likely)

With clouds and milder air streaming in, lows may stay in the mid to upper 40s into early Saturday morning which would break the record. The temperature needs to stay above 43° on Saturday morning to break the record.

3. Sunday High Temperature (Moderately Likely)

We will have some rain around on Sunday morning. If the rain and most of the clouds clear out by late morning or early afternoon, then I think we will have a good chance of breaking the Sunday high temperature record of 62. If the clouds and showers linger a bit, then it might not happen. It will be a mild January afternoon either way.

4. Saturday High Temperature (Moderately Likely)

Saturday will be a mild day and breaking the record of 61 seems reasonable. The limiting factors that could make this a close call are the clouds and wind direction. If the clouds stay thick and the wind stays out of a south-southwest direction (rather than a southwest direction), this could bring the cool bay breezes into TF Green and prevent a record from being broken.

So to recap, all 4 of these records have a reasonable chance of falling, but to go in order from most likely to least likely I would rank them like this:

  1. Sunday Warm Low Record
  2. Saturday Warm Low Record
  3. Sunday High Temperature Record
  4. Saturday High Temperature Record

Have a good weekend! -Pete Mangione

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