Poll: Chafee leads, Caprio loses ground

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - Independent Lincoln Chafee has opened up a clear lead in the race for governor and surging Republican John Robitaille is now tied for second place with Democrat Frank Caprio, our exclusive WPRI 12 poll shows.

The survey of 500 likely voters finds 33 percent of voters supporting Chafee, 26 percent backing both Robitaille and Caprio, and 4 percent for Moderate Party founder Ken Block. Another 11 percent are still undecided with less than five days left before the polls open.

"We're seeing a real shift in the governor's race," Eyewitness News political analyst Joe Fleming said. "As a result of all this, Lincoln Chafee now has a lead – for the first time in this governor's race, somebody has a lead."

• Related: Complete poll results

The telephone poll was conducted last Thursday through Monday by Fleming & Associates of Cumberland, R.I. The survey had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.38 percentage points.

WPRI 12 will release new poll results for the 1st Congressional District contest between David Cicilline and John Loughlin at 6 p.m. Friday.

• Related: Candidates react to poll results

More than three-fourths of the new poll's interviews were completed before Caprio told President Barack Obama he could "take his endorsement and really shove it." That means "Frank Caprio was fading before Shoveitgate happened," Fleming said.

The telephone poll was conducted last Thursday through Monday by Fleming & Associates of Cumberland, R.I. The survey had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.38 percentage points.

WPRI 12 will release new poll results for the 1st Congressional District contest between David Cicilline and John Loughlin at 6 p.m. Friday.

Caprio's loss is Robitaille's gain

Both Caprio and Robitaille saw a seven-point shift compared with our last WPRI poll conducted Sept. 22 to Sept. 26. But they went in different directions.

Caprio dropped from 33 percent to 26 percent among likely voters, while Robitaille rose from 19 percent to 26 percent. That leaves the two major party candidates tied but trailing Chafee by seven points.

Chafee "has the lead in the polls right now, but the other candidates are still within striking distance," Fleming said. "But time is running out."

The survey shows Caprio losing support across a number of voting blocs. He fell 13 points among voters ages 40 to 59, 11 points among independents, eight points among men and seven points in the 1st District.

Fleming suggested a number of possible reasons for Caprio's struggles, including a mediocre performance at WPRI's televised debate Oct. 6 and the controversy over whether his supporters were involved in leaking confidential documents about Chafee's former campaign manager, J.R. Pagliarini.

"It stopped the Caprio campaign's momentum," Fleming said.

By contrast, Robitaille improved his standing with every subcategory of voters in our WPRI 12 poll except one – union members. He gained 10 points among independents and eight points among women in the space of a month.

"Conservative voters are moving from Caprio to Robitaille," Fleming said. The Republican was largely ignored by Chafee and Caprio until recently, which allowed him to promote himself as an alternative and emphasize his support for low taxes and reduced spending, he said.

Chafee has big gain with labor

Front-runner Lincoln Chafee's overall support changed less dramatically than that of his two opponents, rising from 30 percent to 33 percent compared with our WPRI 12 a month ago.

Chafee saw his support grow by eight points in the 1st District, by six points among both men and Democrats, and by a whopping 18 points among union members. That last detail shows Chafee's labor supporters are giving him a major boost, Fleming said.

In another sign of how Chafee is slicing into what would traditionally be Caprio's base, he is only four points behind Caprio among Democrats, 45 percent to 41 percent.

By comparison, Chafee's support among members of his old Republican Party has dwindled to just 11 percent, while his rating among independents was basically unchanged at 34 percent.

Key questions about candidates

Our WPRI 12 poll also asked likely voters for their opinions about each of the three main candidates.

Slightly more than half of voters - 52 percent - said they would not be less likely to vote for Lincoln Chafee because of his proposal to levy a 1 percent sales tax on some items that are currently exempt, while 43 percent said it would make them less likely to support him and 6 percent were unsure.

In addition, only 35 percent of voters said they would not vote for Frank Caprio because they think "he represents old-style Rhode Island politics," as Chafee has alleged. More than half - 56 percent - said it would not affect their decision and 9 percent said they were unsure.

John Robitaille's service in the administration of outgoing Gov. Donald Carcieri was not a major negative, either. Just 29 percent of voters said Robitaille's tenure as a Carcieri aide would prevent them from voting for him, while nearly two-thirds - 65 percent - said it would not and 5 percent were unsure.

Robitaille now Chafee's chief worry

The fallout from Caprio's "shove it" remarks is unlikely to help him rebuild his standing in the final week of the race, and his campaign will need to work fast to block Robitaille's surge, Fleming said.

As the contest draws to a close, all three candidates will need to focus on preparing to get out the vote next Tuesday, finding undecided voters, drawing attention to their campaign events and avoiding gaffes.

They are also calling in heavy-hitter supporters for last-minute campaign events, with former President Bill Clinton coming for Caprio, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg coming for Chafee, and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney coming for Robitaille.

Fleming said that the Chafee campaign will not be able to rest easy despite opening up a lead in the new poll. "Right now Chafee's ahead, but I have to assume they're still concerned about John Robitaille," he said.

And in a sign of how much the race has changed in just a month, Fleming added: "I would think if I was advising Chafee I'd be more concerned about John Robitaille now than Frank Caprio."

tnesi@wpri.com