Poll: Caprio, Chafee in dead heat

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - Frank Caprio and Lincoln Chafee are in a dead heat in the race to become Rhode Island’s next governor, a new poll released Friday shows.

If the election were held today, 28 percent of Rhode Island voters would support Democrat Caprio while 27 percent would back independent Chafee – a statistical tie due to the poll’s margin of error of about plus or minus 3.7 points.

• In-Depth: Campaign 2010 Race for Governor

Even more voters – 30 percent – remain undecided about the governor’s race.

In the single digits were Republican John Robitaille, supported by 7 percent; Moderate Party candidate Ken Block, with 3 percent; and Republican Victor Moffitt, with 2 percent. Robitaille and Moffitt will face off in the Republican primary Sept. 14.

• Related: Locals want lower taxes, more spending, smaller deficit (WPRI Blog)

The survey of 702 registered Rhode Island voters was conducted from July 27 to 30 by Brown University’s Taubman Center for Public Policy and John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory. It covered a range of political and economic issues.

Cicilline, Lynch ahead

In another high-profile campaign, the four-way race for the Democratic nomination to replace U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy in Congress, Providence Mayor David Cicilline had a wide lead, with 32 percent of voters backing him, ahead of second-place Bill Lynch, former chair of the Rhode Island Democratic Party, at 15 percent.

However, Brown’s voter sample in the race was tiny – 174 people – and therefore its margin of error for that question was a wide plus or minus 7.4 points. That means Cicilline’s lead over Lynch could be as small as two points rather than nearly 20.

• See the Democratic candidates for Congress Debate

In third place for the nomination to succeed Kennedy was businessman Anthony Gemma, with 11 percent, followed by state Rep. David Segal at 5 percent. As with the governor’s race, more voters said they were undecided – 35 percent – than said they supported an individual candidate.

In a statement, Gemma blasted Brown's pollsters.

"These numbers tell us nothing about this race, and to be blunt, I am both disappointed in and perplexed by Brown’s decision to publish the results of such unscientifically conducted polling," he said.

Langevin, Roberts on top

In the state’s other congressional district, incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Langevin had a commanding lead over his Democratic primary opponent, former state Rep. Elizabeth Dennigan, with 55 percent of voters backing Langevin, 12 percent supporting Dennigan and 30 percent undecided. The margin of error in that race was plus or minus 6.6 points.

In the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, incumbent Elizabeth Roberts was backed by 49 percent of likely voters, trailed by Red Sox executive Jeremy Kapstein at 18 percent. That race found 33 percent of voters undecided.

In the other two statewide Democratic primaries, for attorney general and secretary of state, at least half of voters said they did not know who they would support.

Still gloomy on economy

When it came to the economy, Rhode Islanders remained as gloomy as they were in February, with 96 percent of those surveyed describing the state’s economy as “not so good” or “poor,” and 92 percent saying the same of the national economy.

People felt less negative about their own situations. More than half of Rhode Islanders – 56 percent – described their personal finances as good or excellent, basically unchanged from February. But 70 percent also said they knew a friend or family member who had recently lost his or her job.

The poll also found strong support for Central Falls Superintendent Francis Gallo’s decision to fire all teachers at the city’s troubled high school in February, with 61 percent describing it as “the right thing to do.” Gallo rehired the teachers in May after reaching an agreement with their union.

Caprio's marks highest

Among current officeholders, General Treasurer Caprio was the most popular leader, with 51 percent of those surveyed approving of his job performance. He was the only one who cracked 40 percent.

Gov. Donald Carcieri’s approval rating rose to 36 percent, up from 29 percent in Brown’s last poll in February. Lt. Gov. Roberts’ approval rating improved to 33 percent, from 20 percent in February.

• See the Results: Eyewitness News Campaign 2010 Poll

Attorney General Patrick Lynch’s rating was basically unchanged at 39 percent, while Secretary of State A. Ralph Mollis’ rating rose 10 points to 32 percent compared with February. Cicilline’s job as mayor was approved of by 40 percent, also statistically unchanged.

The General Assembly’s two leaders’ poll numbers remained the lowest by far. Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed’s approval rating was 21 percent, unchanged from February. House Speaker Gordon Fox’s rating was 20 percent, higher than his predecessor William Murphy’s 15 percent approval in February.

The complete poll results are available at brown.edu .