Poll: Rep. Kennedy vulnerable in Nov.

EAST PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - Congressman Patrick Kennedy may be facing his most difficult re-election campaign in 16 years, according to an exclusive WPRI-12 Poll released this week.

The poll shows 31 percent of those interviewed said they would “consider another” candidate and 28 percent said they would “vote to replace” Kennedy. Those who would re-elect the eight-term Congressman came in at 35 percent. Five percent weren’t sure.

• See a breakdown of the 1st Congressional results

The poll, conducted by Fleming & Associates for WPRI-12 interviewed 250 registered voters in Kennedy’s district and comes with a 6.2 percent margin of error.

Kennedy’s numbers are even bleaker when you go statewide: of the 500 polled in both districts, a mere 35 percent give Kennedy a favorable rating, with a 62 percent unfavorable rating. He fared slightly better in District 1 with a 42 percent favorable and 56 percent unfavorable.

• See a breakdown of Kennedy's statewide poll numbers

“This could become the race of Patrick Kennedy’s life,” said Eyewitness News analyst and pollster Joe Fleming. “It depends on how strong his opponent is. If [they] can raise money, this could become a very serious race.”

• Extended interview with Joe Fleming on Kennedy poll numbers

Only Republican state Representative John Loughlin has thrown his hat into the ring, officially announcing his candidacy Thursday.

“Clearly this is a Congressman who is out of touch,” Loughlin said. “He's lost touch with his constituents and that’s certainly reflected in the numbers.”

• Extended interview with John Loughlin on Kennedy poll numbers

Congressman Kennedy declined to comment about the poll results.

Kennedy’s biggest challenge, according to the numbers, could be with independents. Only 26 percent of independents would put him back in office while 42 percent would consider someone else. 25 percent of independents polled would vote for anybody but Kennedy.

“The numbers for independent for voters have to be a big concern especially with what happened in Massachusetts with Scott Brown, ” said Fleming. “He has to get independent voters back and support him in order to win re-election for congress.”

Republican State Senator Scott Brown from Massachusetts pulled a massive upset to topple Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley in a special election last month. The election was to fill the seat of Patrick Kennedy’s late father Senator Edward Kennedy.

Loughlin, who is quick to point out he drives a pick-up truck much like Brown made famous in his campaign ads, is hoping for a similar victory.

“The mood of the voters is one where they desire change,” Loughlin said. “They feel disconnected from Washington they feel like they are not being listened to.”

In comparison, the numbers for Congressman Jim Langevin are far better: 42 percent of voters in Langevin’s district would vote to re-elect, 35 percent would consider another and only 14 percent are looking for anyone else.

• See a breakdown of 2nd Congressional District results
• See Langevin's statewide poll results

Unlike Kennedy, Langevin scored well with independents -- only 10 percent would “vote to replace.”

Kennedy’s core voters, Democrats, are willing to give him two more years with 61 percent saying they would re-elect.

Fleming said the numbers could help Loughlin -- a little known state legislator from Tiverton Rhode Island -- raise some campaign cash.

“I’m sure they’re going to get these numbers out to fundraising people and say ‘look, there is a chance Congressman Kennedy can be defeated,’” Fleming said. “I’m sure Congressman Kennedy will take the numbers and realize he has to really work in his district and get his base of support back.”

The poll was conducted by phone January 27 through January 31, 2010. Reflecting the political canvas of the state; 39 percent of those polled considered themselves Democrat, 17 percent Republican and 41 percent Independent. Statewide statistics -- 500 registered voters -- comes with a 4.4 percent margin of error.