Poll: 75% down on gov; Raimondo praised

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - Rhode Islanders of every stripe are unhappy with Gov. Lincoln Chafee's performance as he settles into his second year in office, according to an exclusive WPRI 12 poll released Monday evening.

The new survey of 511 registered voters finds just 21% of voters give a positive grade to Chafee, an independent ex-Republican, while 75% give him negative marks. That includes nearly half of voters - 48% - who rate the job Chafee is doing as "poor."

"These are very, very bad numbers for the governor," WPRI 12 political analyst Joe Fleming said. Chafee is in the doghouse with every group of voters, including voters in union households, 80% of whom give him a negative rating. His strongest showing is with Democrats: 31% give him a positive rating against 63% negative.

"People are not grasping onto what he's doing," Fleming said. Chafee won the governor's office with 36% of the vote in a four-way race. "He's lost a lot of the support that he had to start with."

• Interactive: Breakdown of poll results
• Poll: Gov. Lincoln Chafee's job approval rating
• Poll: Gen. Treasurer Gina Raimondo's job approval rating
• Poll: How Whitehouse fares vs Hinckley
• Web Extra: Joe Fleming breaks down the numbers
• Poll: GOP's Doherty crushing Cicilline

The telephone interview poll was conducted last Monday through Thursday by Fleming & Associates of Cumberland, R.I. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.8 percentage points.

The widespread antipathy toward Chafee is a stark contrast with how Rhode Islanders view Treasurer Gina Raimondo, the Democrat who partnered with him on last year's landmark pension overhaul and is widely seen as a possible challenger he may face in 2014.

The survey shows 56% of voters give Raimondo a positive review and 25% give her performance a negative one, with another 19% saying they don't know. "For a general treasurer to have 81% knowing her, that's very good," Fleming said. "Also keep in mind she's only been in office 14 months, so she's still fairly new on this."

Raimondo even gets positive marks from 48% of union households despite labor's vocal opposition to the pension law. "It surprises me a bit, but at the same time I think the unions knew she was going to do something with the pensions," Fleming said.

Unlike Chafee, he said, "she never told the unions, 'I will not do pension reform.'" Fleming also pointed out that such households also include private-sector union members, "who may view this totally differently than a public-sector employee. So that's another reason her numbers could be a bit better."

Whitehouse cruising to second term

The new WPRI 12 poll also finds U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse with a big lead over challenger Barry Hinckley as he seeks reelection in November. The freshman Democrat has a 22-point advantage over his Republican opponent, with Whitehouse getting 50%, Hinckley getting 28% and 20% of voters unsure.

"He's right where he needs to be to win reelection," Fleming said. "The Democrats are staying with him - they're supporting him big time. He's getting seniors. He's getting key groups that he has to get to support him."

"I don't think Barry Hinckley at this time is a household name in Rhode Island," Fleming added. "Hinckley needs to latch onto something to give his campaign some momentum. It's still very early but he needs to raise money to be competitive in this race."

Whitehouse is ahead in the head-to-head matchup despite being less popular than other federal officials. Whitehouse's rating is 38% positive and 53% negative. That's far below President Obama (43% positive, 55% negative) and U.S. Sen. Jack Reed (53% positive, 40% negative), though significantly ahead of Congressman David Cicilline's dismal 20% positive rating.

"They may not be overwhelmingly in love with Sheldon Whitehouse's job, but there's no controversy to bring his numbers down," Fleming said. "There's a big difference there."

Whitehouse spokesman Seth Larson said the senator is pleased that voters are planning to support him for a second term.

"Rhode Islanders know that Sheldon has fought successfully for solutions, like closing the Medicare doughnut hole for our seniors, that make a real difference in their lives," he told WPRI.com. "These are tough times and people are frustrated, and Sheldon shares that frustration and will continue fighting hard every day to create jobs and improve our economy."

Fleming also highlighted Obama's 12-point net negative rating in Rhode Island. "The president's numbers - for a Democratic state, his numbers are not good," he said. Reed's approval is down to 53% from the roughly 70% he used to get, as well.

"The numbers for everybody are down," Fleming said. "The voters are very skeptical about Congress."

Ted Nesi ( tnesi@wpri.com ) covers politics and the economy for WPRI.com and writes the Nesi's Notes blog. Follow him on Twitter: @tednesi

Tim White ( twhite@wpri.com ) is the Target 12 investigative reporter for WPRI 12 and Fox Providence. Follow him on Twitter: @white_tim