Chafee has edge over Lynch in gov race

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - Rhode Island's next gubernatorial race is nine months away, but an exclusive Eyewitness News poll reveals voters already have strong feelings about who they like.

According to the poll, conducted by Fleming & Associates, independent candidate and former U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee has the early edge.

"We have an independent running for governor who is right up there with the Democrats and the Republicans running for governor," said Joe Fleming, Eyewitness News political analyst and pollster.

• Watch extended interview with Chafee

The poll asked 500 registered voters how they would vote in a general election.

In a race with Democrat Frank Caprio, Republican John Robitaille and Chafee, Caprio pulled 30 percent of the vote, Robitaille gets 13 percent and Chafee gets 31 percent. The remaining 23 percent weren't sure.

• Breakdown of Caprio poll results

"We have a virtual dead heat in this race," Fleming said. "And what's interesting is that among males, Chafee leads, Caprio leads among females."

However, if you replace Caprio with Attorney General Lynch, the picture changes.

Lynch would get 23 percent of the vote, Robitaille edged up to 18 percent, and Chafee jumped to 34 percent. The remaining voters weren't sure for who they would vote.

Digging Deeper, Fleming said Lynch has a big headache on his hands.

• Breakdown of Lynch's poll results

"The independent voters right now are not voting for Patrick Lynch ," Fleming said.

• Watch extended analysis with Fleming

Right now, Chafee has the support of 40 percent of the independents, Lynch has 16 percent.

When asked if he was concerned about the poll results, Lynch said, "Well listen, I don't come into this race looking for just Democrats, or just any type of particular voter. I also realize that I think the public sometimes forgets that this is a changing field you know...there are some people in the race that I'm not sure what party they're going to run for."

• Watch extended interview with Lynch

Lynch's comment was a not-so-subtle swipe at Democratic challenger Frank Caprio, who some have speculated might switch parties.

Something Caprio denied.

"No, I'm going to run very strong in the Democratic primary, as the numbers show in this poll," he said.

• Watch extended interview with Caprio

As for Chafee, he's rooting for Caprio to stay a Democrat.

"If they have a primary, history shows that those are good for the person who doesn't have to go into the primary. I know from 2006," Chafee said, referring to the loss of his Senate seat to Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, after a brutal Republican primary battle against former Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey.

As for Republican candidate John Robitaille , he said his lagging poll support will change as he gains some name recognition.

• Watch extended interview with Robitaille

And concerning the primary race between Caprio and Lynch, Robitaille said he knows who he'd rather face in a general election.

"Based on this poll, I would rather run against Lynch," Robitaille said.

That's because the numbers show some of the Republican vote might shift to Caprio in a general election.

"It goes from 44 percent of Republican vote when Caprio is in the race, to 58.9 percent of the vote when Lynch is in the race."

Still an unknown in the race - who the newly formed Moderate Party will select as its candidate.