Poll: Whitehouse, Langevin build big re-election leads

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Congressman Jim Langevin both hold commanding leads over their little-known Republican challengers with five weeks to go before the election, according to an exclusive WPRI 12 poll released Monday evening.

The new survey of 501 likely voters in Rhode Island shows Democrat Whitehouse at 56% and Republican Barry Hinckley at 30%, with 11% of voters undecided. Whitehouse, a first-term incumbent who won office in 2006, has increased the size of his lead over Hinckley to 26 points from 22 points in  the February WPRI 12 poll.

"There's really been no change in the race," WPRI 12 political analyst Joe Fleming said. "Right now Mr. Hinckley has not made any inroads that are going to hurt Mr. Whitehouse."

• Interactive: Breakdown of poll results
• Related: Cicilline now leading Doherty

In Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District, the survey of 251 likely voters shows Democrat Langevin at 53%, Republican Michael Riley at 29% and independent Abel Collins at 9%, with 8% of voters undecided. Riley, a first-time candidate, is the best-funded challenger Langevin has faced since he won office in 2000.

"Jim Langevin has a large lead - he's got strong support among female voters," Fleming said. He said the race will like get closer by Nov. 6, but "Mr. Riley has to make the case for why voters should replace Jim Langevin."

The telephone interview poll was conducted last Wednesday through Saturday by Fleming & Associates of Cumberland, R.I. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus approximately 4.38 percentage points on statewide questions and 6.2 points on questions in a congressional district.

Whitehouse TV spots working

Whitehouse's approval rating has continued its steady upward climb but remains underwater.

The senator's job performance is rated excellent or good by 45% of voters - up from 38% in February and 33% back in January 2010 - while 48% rate his performance as fair or poor, improved from 53% in February. Whitehouse's approval rating is 50% in the 1st Congressional District and 41% in the 2nd District.

"I think a lot of this goes to the fact that he's been running so many positive TV ads," Fleming said. Whitehouse has a huge financial advantage in the race, with a $2.8 million campaign war chest as of Aug. 22; Hinckley had a comparatively paltry $554,124 at that point.

Two-thirds of Rhode Island voters still know too little about Hinckley to express an opinion about him, including 55% of Republicans, despite months of campaigning and weeks of TV ads. Among those who do know Hinckley, 23% view him positively and 9% view him negatively.

Whitehouse leads among every subgroup of voters except Republicans, 73% of whom back Hinckley. The Democrat has a 26-point lead among women, a 26-point lead among voters ages 60 and older, and a nine-point lead among independents.

Fleming said Whitehouse's lead among independent voters was striking because he's struggled with that group in the past. "If Hinckley's going to make inroads, it's got to be with those independents," he said.

Langevin's job approval slumps

Unlike Whitehouse, Langevin's approval rating has dropped sharply this year.

The five-term incumbent's job performance is rated excellent or good by just 39% of 2nd District voters, down from 50% in February; half of voters now rate his performance fair or poor. Langevin is actually more popular in Congressman David Cicilline's 1st District, where 43% of voters rate Langevin's performance excellent or good.

Riley, Langevin's Republican opponent, is better-known than U.S. Senate candidate Hinckley in the 2nd District. Voters' opinions of Riley are 33% positive and 11% negative in the district, with 56% knowing too little about him to express a judgment.

"Riley could get momentum and make inroads," Fleming said. "He's still not a household name yet, but he's doing a little better in the 2nd Congressional District."

Among subgroups, Riley is leading among Republicans and - somewhat surprisingly - voters ages 18 to 39, who split 41% to 39% in his favor.

Langevin has a 34-point lead among women, a 27-point lead among voters 60 and older and a 13-point lead among men. Collins, the independent, polls double-digits among women, independents and 40- to 59-year-olds.

Ted Nesi ( tnesi@wpri.com ) covers politics and the economy for WPRI.com and writes the Nesi's Notes blog. Follow him on Twitter: @tednesi