Poll: 52% of Gemma voters would support Doherty

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - More than half of Anthony Gemma's supporters will desert the Democratic Party and vote for Republican Brendan Doherty if incumbent David Cicilline is the party's congressional candidate, an exclusive WPRI 12 poll released Monday night shows.

The new survey of 302 likely Democratic primary voters in Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District reveals just 29% of Gemma supporters will vote for Cicilline if he wins the primary, while 52% will vote for Doherty and 15% are unsure.

An identical 29% of Cicilline supporters say they'll vote for Gemma if he win but just 15% of them say they'll switch sides and vote for Doherty. Another 48% are unsure who they'd support. Overall, the poll finds Cicilline leading Gemma 43% to 31% ahead of the Sept. 11 primary.

• Interactive: Complete WPRI poll results
• More poll: Cicilline widens lead over Gemma

"Half of Gemma's voters, no matter what, are going to go for the Republican candidate for Congress," WPRI 12 political analyst Joe Fleming said. "They're very anti-David-Cicilline voters. Cicilline's probably not going to get them back, which is a plus for Brendan Doherty."

While half of Cicilline's voters are undecided about whom to support if he loses, those who've made up their minds say they'll back Gemma by a two-to-one margin, "which is what you want to have happen," Fleming said.

Among Gemma supporters, the largest shift to Doherty in November would be among seniors, males and union members, according to the poll. Among Cicilline supporters, more than half of women and very likely voters aren't sure who they'd support if Gemma is the Democratic nominee.

Democratic primary voters also expressed uncertainty about the party's chances in the November election, with 23% saying they expect Doherty to win and 49% saying they're not sure what will happen. Only 27% expressed certainty that Doherty will lose, despite the district's strongly Democratic leaning.

Doherty told WPRI.com he thinks his campaign will be successful winning over Democrats, saying he hears "every day that, 'I'm a lifelong Democrat and I'm voting for you,' because people are just sick of what's going on. So it's about integrity. It's about character."

Cicilline argued Democratic voters will wind up supporting his party. "I think they'll have a really clear choice between a direction for this country that the Republicans have set out and what I'm fighting for and what the Democrats are fighting for, and that's an economy where we invest in people," he told WPRI.com.

Ted Nesi ( tnesi@wpri.com ) covers politics and the economy for WPRI.com and writes the Nesi's Notes blog. Follow him on Twitter: @tednesi